March 03, 2026 • 5 min read
A weekend of major disruptions across the Persian Gulf — including U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran’s retaliatory response — left much commercial air traffic in the region paused. Carriers such as Emirates and Etihad suspended scheduled passenger service while running limited cargo and repatriation flights; Qatar Airways temporarily halted flights to and from Doha.
With the campaign expected to continue — President Donald Trump said it could last “four to five weeks” or longer — knock-on effects for global travel began to emerge. While flights may resume as conditions stabilize, travelers should be prepared for the possibility of higher ticket prices as spring and summer bookings accelerate.
Airfares are closely linked to oil prices. After the disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint through which more than 14 million barrels per day normally flow — oil jumped more than 10% week-over-week to trade above $75 per barrel. If the strait were to remain slowed or effectively closed for any sustained period, global crude supplies would tighten and prices would likely climb further.
U.S. airline stocks dropped on worries about rising fuel bills and potential interruptions to service. Higher fuel costs can squeeze airline profits and could prompt some travelers to delay or cancel trips for safety or budget reasons. A TD Cowen report noted that in the near term airline pricing will likely be driven by fuel-cost pressures, which would weigh on carriers’ earnings.
Past episodes provide a guide. After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, oil surged and many airlines incorporated fuel costs into base fares rather than using separate surcharges, typically adding roughly $15–$20 per ticket. Fuel accounts for about a third of an airline’s operating costs, second only to labor. Analyst Tom Fitzgerald has observed that if demand stays healthy, airlines tend to pass fuel-price increases through to consumers with a two- to three-month lag.
How much fares rise will depend on how high oil goes and how long any disruption lasts. Travel consultant Henry Harteveldt says airlines are likely to try to recover a large portion of added fuel expense by raising fares for premium cabins — first class, business, and premium economy — while keeping many coach fares comparatively competitive. That strategy benefits carriers with large, high-yield premium cabins; low-cost carriers, which rely mostly on coach seats, may be forced to push more of the increase onto economy passengers.
If oil were to settle near $100 per barrel for a sustained period, Harteveldt warns the situation could be much tougher for airlines and travelers alike. Still, demand for travel has proven resilient through several shocks this decade. Fitzgerald cautioned that rising gasoline prices and pressure on discretionary spending are variables to watch, but suggested many customers might absorb somewhat higher airfares for a time.
The central unknown is duration: how long movements through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained and how long oil prices stay elevated. A brief spike in fuel costs could have only a limited and temporary effect once airlines adjust capacity and pricing. A prolonged supply disruption, however, would increase the risk of broader, more persistent fare hikes across markets.
Advertising and editorial notes: Some cards and products mentioned here are from partners who compensate us if you’re approved through links on our site; that may affect how and where those products appear. We do not cover every card or product, and our analysis and opinions are produced independently by our editorial team. Terms apply to the offers referenced; please see our advertising policy and product review methodology for details.
Editorial disclaimer: The views expressed here are the author’s alone and are not endorsed by banks, credit-card issuers, airlines, or hotel companies.
Featured image by MARCIN GOLBAN/URPHOTO/GETTY IMAGES